Real Estate Market Update: Midvalley Still in the Churn

As we move into the new year, turnover rate for inventory is helping to drive the continued scramble to find housing. In Albany, the average sales price this month is down to $412,973 while in Corvallis it’s up to $514,261. Median home price fell to $391,000 in Albany, and fell drastically in Corvallis to $325,000. In Albany, average days on market held firm at 61 days, and increased slightly in Corvallis to 73 days. 

In Lebanon over the last 90 Days, the average home price fell to $324,070, with the median sales price dropping to $325,000. Homes have spent an average of 71 days on the market in Lebanon over the last three months.   

The number of listings on the market rose by one to 29 listings active in the MLS in Albany, which is over a quarter of a month of inventory. There are 40 active listings in Corvallis, for just under three-quarters of a month of inventory. In Lebanon there are currently only 14 active listings, equaling a bit under half a month’s worth of inventory 

The above statistics were provided to The Advocate by Dave Pautsch of Remax. His interpretation of the market is as follows: 

As I’ve been saying for many months, the current housing market is being driven by a lack of inventory, and very strong buyer demand.  In fact, while inventory is low, it is more the turnover of the inventory so quickly that is having an impact. If you look at the relationship between Active Inventory, SOLD inventory (over the past 90 days), and Pending/Under Contract Inventory, you can see the flow.   

“In Corvallis, for example, there are currently 40 Active listings available for sale. Then, there are almost two-and-a-half times that amount Pending sale (102 homes), and 50% MORE homes having sold in the last 90 days or about 55 homes per month.   

“You see a similar dynamic in Albany’s market. 29 Active residential listings, almost three times that amount are pending sale (87) and almost that same amount of homes (83 per month) are selling.   

“Homes are going off market into the pending category within literal days of being listed. Think of this as the CHURN in the market. That CHURN rate, the pace of sales, is what is driving prices up.   

“My final thought on the market is to ask the question ‘Is now a good time to buy, or should I wait?’  

“Two things to consider here. One is, of course, will prices continue to go up? The answer to that is, at least in the short term, yes. Perhaps not at the rates we have seen, but inventory remains an issue. [And two is] even if the market were to drop, what is the expectation on interest rates? That second function is as much a factor in your monthly mortgage payment as price, and the anticipated increase in interest rates is likely to offset any (unexpected) reduction in prices…resulting in a monthly mortgage obligation on par with a home purchased today.  Further, if you see both a price and an interest rate increase in the next year, you may well regret not having made that purchase now.”  

Check in next month to see where the market goes from here. 

By Kyra Young 

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