Covid-19 Model Shows Oregon Hospital Overload by May if Nothing is Done

Stats from the New Website Covid Act Shows Discouraging Prognosis for State’s Healthcare Centers  

“Shelter in Place,” suggests the new website, Covid Act, which has been projecting statistics for hospital overload across the US. According to the website, limited action (i.e. business as usual) would cause Oregon hospitals to see a spike in patients with COVID-19, causing them to be overfilled by the end of April.  

The projection shows the potential for a worst-case scenario of around 85,000 estimated deaths due to coronavirus, which is both 28,000 more than Corvallis’ population, and more than five times the amount of available hospital beds in the state. Once overwhelmed, a death-spiral would begin which would make it increasingly difficult to treat existing and incoming patients. 

However, it’s important to remember that this is a worst-case scenario, and that the social distancing and self-seclusion measures will greatly reduce the amount of hospitalizations. The site itself states that the model is “intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future.”  

According to the graph, self-seclusion and Gov. Brown’s new stay at home order may delay hospital overload by more than three months, allowing said hospitals much needed time to recoup and restock. Brown’s order is effectively the same as a shelter-in-place order, just worded differently to reduce potential panic. 

Correction: The projection of potential worst-case scenario shows around 85,000 estimated deaths, not hospitalizations. This article has been edited to reflect this fact.

By Thomas Nguyen